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איחוד האמירויות הערביות
בריטניהThe mining sector continues to drive growth
The robustness of the mining sector contributed significantly to economic growth in 2023 and will continue to do so in 2024. The economy will also count on the recovery of non-mining sectors such as services (trade and transport) and agriculture and fishing (25% of GDP and 40.5% of employment), whose output and exports (coconuts, cashew and Brazil nuts, cocoa, fish) will grow. Foreign trade will make a positive contribution to growth, driven mainly by mineral exports (bauxite, aluminum, gold) to India, China, and the United Arab Emirates. However, growth will be driven mainly by domestic demand. Household consumption, however, will remain the main contributor to GDP (82.7%). The resumption, announced for October 2023, of Indian shipments of non-basmati white rice to Guinea, suspended in July, will encourage a very gradual easing of inflationary pressures. Coupled with the expected appreciation of the Guinean franc against the US dollar, and growth, this should encourage the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea to maintain its rate at 11.5%, or even lower it slightly in order to stimulate consumption. Furthermore, in August 2023, the authorities announced an increase in public investment in infrastructure to develop the country's productive capacity. Guinea will also be able to count on growing foreign direct investment in infrastructure, particularly in connection with the development of mining projects, such as the construction of a 670km railway and a mineral port to launch the exploitation of the Simandou iron deposit. Work began at the end of 2023 following an agreement on mining rights between the state and Rio Tinto (Anglo-Australian group) and WCS (Sino-Singapore group). Completion is scheduled for 2024.
Dependence on external financing
In 2022 and 2023, the current account surplus fell, weighed down by the deterioration in the trade surplus. The latter suffered from the fall in aluminum prices, while prices of imported products remained high. The export ban on 15 basic agricultural products (including rice, potatoes, and palm oil), introduced in July 2023 for six months to alleviate food insecurity, also penalized the trade balance. The current account surplus is expected to grow in 2024, supported by increased mining exports, a recovery in foreign agricultural sales and high gold prices. Nevertheless, the trade balance is likely to be constrained by weak growth in China, which absorbs 85% of Guinean bauxite exports, and by high import expenditure (oil, vehicles and other mining equipment, consumer goods) linked to robust domestic demand. Infrastructure construction, site development and mining transport costs will fuel the services deficit. The primary income deficit, sustained by the repatriation of mining profits, will be offset by expatriate remittances.
Rising current expenditure (subsidies on electricity and fuel) and the challenge of mobilizing mining revenues, due to weak tax monitoring, have widened the budget deficit in 2023. The tax collection reforms announced in 2022 (digitization of declarations and payments) should take effect in 2024 and improve revenues. The deficit is therefore expected to stabilize, with continued high levels of current expenditure, security and infrastructure investment. It will be financed mainly by bilateral loans, with China remaining the country's leading creditor. Public debt is mainly concessional, and mostly external (60%). The risk of over-indebtedness will remain moderate with the stabilization of the budget deficit and strong growth.
A very shaky democratic transition
Following the coup d'état that toppled the authoritarian President Alpha Condé from an illegitimate third term in September 2021, a military junta led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya took power. The junta, represented by the Comité National du Rassemblement pour le Développement (CNRD), agreed, in October 2022 and under international pressure, to lead a transition to civilian rule. During the transition period, which is due to end in December 2024, the junta is to carry out reforms such as revamping the constitution and electoral rolls. However, the time required to implement these reforms and the government's authoritarian excesses (ban on political demonstrations, dissolution of the opposition coalition, the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution, infringement of media freedom) suggest that the general elections, normally scheduled for early 2025, will be postponed. If, in 2021, public opinion was overwhelmingly in favor of the coup d'état, because it was pleased to get rid of an autocratic president, it is now wary. Institutional capacities are weak and access to public services is limited. Guinea ranks 182nd out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index 2021; inequality is high, corruption widespread, poverty high (44%) and informal employment predominant (96.5% of jobs). Following the coup d'état, Guinea was excluded from ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) and subjected to sanctions by the organization (freezing of leaders' assets, suspension of financial assistance). Nevertheless, the country is barely vulnerable to these economic and financial measures as it can rely on its mining revenues and mints its own currency. Doumbouya is developing his extra-regional relations and is attempting to establish his international legitimacy. For example, he attended the UN General Assembly in September 2023.
